Elite Management and Ethnic Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa

• Applicant: Dr. Felix Sebastian Bethke
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: from 2020 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 437131429

Ethnic conflicts are a major threat to global peace and security. To explain ethnic conflict, research has identified ethnic power relations (EPR) as particularly relevant (Cederman et al., 2010, 2013). The concept of EPR evaluates if and how ethnic groups in a country are politically included or excluded, i.e. if their representatives serve as ministers in the government. EPR can take various forms, ranging from proportional representation in ethnically shared governments to complete ethnic monopolies, in which the entire government is effectively controlled by a single ethnic group. Scholars argue that ethnic conflicts are the result of competing ethno-nationalist claims to state power. If politically relevant ethnic groups are not appropriately represented in the government, they are likely to develop grievances and in turn mobilize for rebellion.The planned research project seeks to advances theories and empirical research on the relationship between EPR and violent conflict by improving both its conceptualization and measurement. Two research questions guide the analysis: (1) Why do rulers implement specific strategies of ethnic elite management and (2) how do these different strategies affect the outbreak of ethnic conflict. To answer these questions, the project advances a theoretical framework, which considers how the threat perception of African rulers (i.e. their perceived risk of being deposed) determines their strategy of ethnic elite management, which in turn influences the outbreak of ethnic conflict. To test these theoretical assumptions, the project will compile a comprehensive database on the ethnic composition of African governments, which covers all ministers that served between independence and 2015 in Sub-Saharan Africa including monthly information on their appointments and dismissals. Therefore, the project will be able to measure strategies of ethnic elite management accurately and also account for the temporal dynamics of EPR, i.e. considering changes to the ethnic composition of the government. This data will provide more rich and fine-grained evidence that allows to reevaluate and extend theories and findings about the relationship between EPR and violent conflict.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants