Escalation of distributional conflict: Onset, dynamics, and group interactions

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Florian Morath
• Subject Area: Economic Policy, Applied Economics ; Economic Theory
• Term: from 2019 to 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 423644053

Conflicts about the distribution of resources are present everywhere: sometimes they take place in the form of an armed conflict, sometimes as non-violent disputes, at other times distributional conflict can be solved by mutual agreement without major effort. But which factors cause a disagreement about the distribution of resources to build up, escalate and end up in open conflict and an impossibility to reach a peaceful resource allocation decision? The key focus of this research project is on the dynamics of distributional conflict and reasons for the onset and escalation of conflict. Two main sets of questions should be analyzed: (i) On the role of group dynamics and group identity for conflict escalation; and (ii) on informational aspects of dynamic conflict games as well as strategic behavior in the anticipation of distributional conflict, which may favor conflict escalation or its resolution. The project will advance the field of the economics of conflict by closely combining studies on the theory of conflict with empirical analyses. The economic literature on contests typically takes the emergence of a contest as given, rather than analyzing reasons for an escalation of conflict along the extensive margin. Moreover, the contestants are often modeled as unitary actors, abstracting from interactions within the adversary sides such as group dynamics, strategic concerns or "audience effects." For instance, reasons for the emergence of a contest have not yet been systematically studied for situations in which groups instead of individuals take the decision to initiate or resolve an open conflict and to cooperate across (ethnic or social) groups. Project area (i) will explicitly focus on such group interactions. Moreover, aspects of incomplete information can cause interesting dynamics of conflict investments caused by belief updating, for instance. These have received little attention in the literature but can help explain actual conflict behavior and will, thus, be the focus of project area (ii). The corresponding sets of research questions involve theoretical as well as empirical and experimental work. The systematic analyses of group interactions and dynamic aspects of distributional conflict will help understand major current policy problems such as ethnic or political conflict at the macro level and identity-based discrimination and conflict at the micro level. The findings will provide a basis for the assessment of institutions that favor de-escalation and conflict resolution.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Austria