Frieden durch Umweltkooperation? Eine empirische Untersuchung der Auswirkung von Umweltabkommen auf Aussöhnungsprozesse zwischen Staaten
Politikwissenschaft
Zusammenfassung der Projektergebnisse
While a large body of literature focuses on the impact of climate change and environmental stress on armed conflict onset, little attention has been paid to potential links between environmental problems, intergroup cooperation and more peaceful relations. By taking such an environmental peacemaking perspective, the project aimed to generate empirical evidence on the links between environmental cooperation and improved interstate relations. It conducted the first cross-case study on environmental peacebuilding so far. The core hypothesis of the project was: Environmental agreements concluded by a limited number of states can facilitate (already ongoing) reconciliation processes between rival states in the middle- to long-term. The project used a mix-method approach utilising quantitative and qualitative data to test this claim, including a systematic review of the literature, two large-N statistical analyses, a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and the in-depth study of five cases. Results provide qualified support for the proposed hypothesis: Regional interstate cooperation on international water bodies and transboundary conservation indeed facilitates reconciliation and more positive relationships between states. However, such effects occur in the short- to medium-term and strongly dependent on a number of scope conditions. The most important of these conditions are: high levels of attention for environmental issues, the absence of intense interstate competition, internal political stability and a history of environmental cooperation. The findings thus suggest that if certain scope conditions are present, international environmental cooperation can set the stage for and even catalyse more peaceful relations between states. Future research should pay more attention to the factors shaping the success of (especially intra-state) environmental peacemaking.
