Steuerung und Optimierung von Messprozessen durch die Berücksichtigung von Kostenfunktionen
Zusammenfassung der Projektergebnisse
The DFG project aims to study a new methodology for geodetic monitoring processes from an economic and safety (risk) point of view. For the new methodology, the classical probability based decision-making process is extended to consequences/risk of a project directly. The theory used for achieving the research targets is the so-called utility theory. The main idea is to judge each possible occurring outcome with the overall consequences within the decision making process. The final decision is the one which leads for the whole measurement processes to the minimum risk. It is very meaningful, especially when the monitoring project has time limitation, tight budget, etc. In the classical approach, the significance level is more or less “intuitive”, but the significance level can now be derived conversely from the cost functions. Since the cost functions for each individual case can be clearly judged, the so derived significance level is more explicit and reliable compared with the general empirical significance level in the classical approaches. The most important results of the theoretical approach were derived by the following process. In the first step, a set of formulas for determination of significance levels with given cost functions are established. Thus, the significance level is not an intuitive choice any more, but a mathematically derived value based on cost functions. This makes a lot of sense, since the choice of significance level will influence the final decision. In the second step, the defined significance levels for control and optimization of the measurement process are used. In this way, the overall risk of a measurement project can be minimized based on possible occurring consequences of a wrong decision. In the third step, the new methodology developed for the classical hypothesis testing is extended for u alternatives. This is closer to the reality, where usually more than two possible outcomes of a decision are realistic. In the fourth step, the influences of different sources of uncertainties in the measurements are evaluated quantitatively. It is therefore possible to reduce the uncertainties appropriately in order to achieve an optimal minimization of the total risk of a monitoring project. The developed approaches open a general new perception on decision making. It is not limited to geodetic monitoring, the general methodology is applicable for decision making in monitoring projects and decision processes of other disciplines as well. In this new case, the final decision can be optimal from a point of an economic loss (risk) with the help of utility theory. The risk of the project can be modeled and reduced by optimally chosen additional measurements. In this new methodology, the significance level can be determined conversely from cost functions. It is more reliable compared with an intuitive one in the classical approach. They are pre-information required for a steering process for monitoring projects. Within the evaluation methodology, a new approach was developed to describe the general procedure for an optimal steering and optimization of the geodetic monitoring process. The most beneficial measurements which minimize the risk are identified, and finally it leads to the minimum costs or risk of an individual monitoring process.
Projektbezogene Publikationen (Auswahl)
- (2011): Assessment of risk within Geodetic decisions. In: Proceedings of the 5th IAG Symposium on Geodesy for Geotechnical and Structural Engineering, the 13th FIG Symposium on Deformation Measurements and Analysis and 2nd International Workshop on Spatial Information Technologies for Monitoring the Deformation of Large-Scale Man-made Linear Features. CD Proceedings, Joint International Symposium on Deformation Monitoring. Hong Kong, China
Neumann, I. and Zhang, Y.
- Optimal hypothesis testing in case of regulatory thresholds, in: N. Sneeuw, P. Novák, M. Crespi, and F. Sansò (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th Hotine-Marussi- Symposium, International Association of Geodesy Symposia, Springer, Berlin – New York 137 (2011), 75–80, 2011
Neumann I. and Kutterer H.
(Siehe online unter https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-22078-4_11) - Aktuelle Aspekte zur individuellen Qualitätssicherung von Messprozessen. VDV-Seminar zur Qualitätssicherung geodätischer Systeme im Messeinsatz, 22. und 23. März 2012, Fulda
Neumann, I.
- Risk Assessment for Slope Monitoring, Geodätische Woche, Hannover, 09.-11.10.2012
Zhang, Y. and Neumann, I.
- (2013): Minimising the Risk for Deformation Monitoring Projects, In: Proceedings of the 2nd Joint international Symposium on Deformation Monitoring. Nottingham, England (CD Proceedings)
Zhang, Y. and Neumann, I.
- Risk Assessment for Slope Monitoring, In: Journal of Applied Geodesy. Volume 7, Issue 3, Pages 159–171, ISSN (Online) 1862-9024, ISSN (Print) 1862-9016, August 2013
Zhang, Y. and Neumann, I.
(Siehe online unter https://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jag-2012-0036) - Steering of measurement processes with the aid of utility values, Geodätische Woche, Essen, 08.-10.10.2013
Zhang, Y. and Neumann, I.
- (2014): Utility Theory as a Method to Minimise the Risk in Deformation Analysis Decisions, In: Journal of Applied Geodesy. ISSN (Online) 1862-9024, ISSN (Print) 1862- 9016, November 2014
Zhang, Y. and Neumann, I.
(Siehe online unter https://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jag-2014-0012) - (2015): Kosteneffiziente Entscheidungen bei Monitoringprojekten. In: Busch, W. und Knospe, S. (Hrsg.): Tagungsband Geomonitoring 2015, Clausthal-Zellerfeld, S. 139-150
Neumann, I. and Zhang, Y.
