Project Details
Projekt
REsolving Trophodynamik CoNsequences of Climate ChaNge (RECONN 1) - Simulating and Predicting Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Match-mismatch Effects on Key Trophic Players
Applicant
Professor Myron Peck, Ph.D.
Subject Area
Hydrogeology, Hydrology, Limnology, Urban Water Management, Water Chemistry, Integrated Water Resources Management
Term
from 2004 to 2012
Project identifier
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 5429968
Resolving the effects of climatic processes on the dynamics of critical habitats (determined by their abiotic and biotic characteristics) is paramount to developing a capacity to predict the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and impacts upon the population dynamics of key species. In this program, the trophodynamic consequences of climate change (match mismatch) in the North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystems will be examined using time-series analyses incorporated within four linked model approaches. (1) A three dimensional Eulerian circulation model, HAMSOM (Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model), (2) an embedded ecosystem model (ECOSMO), 3) a Lagrangian particle tracking population model for copepods and individual fish larvae (ECOSMO- IBM), and 4) a juvenile and adult fish bioenergetics model. Each of these approaches is based upon existing model frameworks that will be modified to better resolve shifts in the timing and magnitude of primary (five classes) and secondary production (stage-resolved) and how variations in lower trophic levels affects tertiary production. The target species at the tertiary level is a key pelagic fish species (sprat, Sprattus sprattus) important as a bottom-up control on the production of top predators as well as a top-down control, structuring lower trophic levels through grazing within these ecosystems. Small pelagic fish like sprat are one of the sensitive "bio-indicators" of climate change on regional and basin scales due to their short life spans, high intrinsic growth rates (r), and tight coupling to meso-scale physical processes linked to climate (typical "wasp-waste" response). Long-term data sets of phytoplankton (classes), zooplankton (species) and sprat (all life stages) within the Baltic and North Sea ecosystems will be used verify models, and simulate match-mismatch dynamics and consequences (scenario test) at a variety of temporal (months to decades) and spatial scales (meters to basin).
DFG Programme
Priority Programmes
Participating Persons
Professor Dr. Michael St. John; Professor Dr. Christian Möllmann
