Believing in a Net Zero Society (BeNetZero)

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Grischa Perino
• Subject Area: Economic Policy, Applied Economics
• Term: since 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 513092447

Subproject C1 „BeNetZero“ addresses the conflict-escalation hypothesis (CEH) in the context of climate change (driver). In the framework of the beliefs-externalities-legitimacy (BEL) model, C1 extends the literature on climate policy by providing causal evidence on the role of beliefs in un-dermining the legitimacy of parliaments when attempting to tackle the externalities of climate change (C). Climate policies generate costs to local constituencies in the short run to prevent higher global costs in the long run. We conjecture that the legitimacy of the institutions that legis-late them depends–among other factors–on the perception that the sacrifices are not in vain (output legitimacy), and that the legislated policy is backed by a majority (input legitimacy). To test this, we will conduct experiments where we exogenously induce changes in beliefs about both effectiveness of (first-order belief) and public support (second-order beliefs) for specific policies. If the willingness to personally bear the costs of the policy diminishes, distributional con-flicts escalate, inducing demands to abolish the indicted instrument, climate targets, or the institu-tions blamed for their failure, altogether. The feedback on how widely specific positions are shared in the population and sub-populations affects legitimacy and the willingness to take ac-tions towards disruptive change. The subproject also elicits how members of (EU, federal, state, local) parliaments respond to changes in legitimacy. This provides seminal insights on the role of legitimacy during the big structural change (BISC) towards a net zero society.

• DFG Programme: Research Units
• Subproject of: FOR 5622: Big Structural Change