Estimation of the climatic influence on the past and future sea-level changes in the Baltic Sea with the help of statistical methods and simulations with state-of-the-art climate models

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Hans von Storch
• Subject Area: Palaeontology
• Term: from 2002 to 2006
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 5469791

The climatic influence on the past and previsible future variations of sea-level in the Baltic Sea at time scales of centuries and millenia will be estimated with the help of statistical models, climate proxy data and simulations with global climate models. Two approaches will be followed: 1) Climate simulations with global climate models will be regionalized with standard statistical downscaling methods, which relate meteorological forcing and sea-level data. These resulting statistical models, validated with data of the recent decades, can be then applied to the output of global climate simulations of the Late Holocene and simulations of the future climate. 2) Statistical models linking sea-level data and palaeoclimatic proxy data (e.g. tree-ring data) will be designed with data of the recent decades. These statistical models will describe the indirect relationship proxy data-climate forcing-sea level. These statistical models can be then applied to the long time series of climate proxy data to estimate the climate-related sea-level variability in the past centuries. In the second project phase (years 4-5) the simulations with the global climate model ECHO can be regionalized using the regional climate model REMO.

• DFG Programme: Research Units
• Subproject of: FOR 488: Sinking Coasts: Geosphere, Ecosphere and Anthroposphere of the Holocene Southern Baltic Sea
• Participating Person: Dr. Eduardo Zorita