Protest movements in transition from insurgencies to consolidated rebel rule: The AFPRO-dataset

• Applicant: Dr. Tareq Sydiq
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 537574569

This project aims to research how the transition from insurgency to consolidated rebel governance changes opportunity structures for protest movements. The project answers this question using Afghanistan as a case study for one of the few successful rebel movements. The research question is: How does rebel success change opportunity structures for protest movements? The project will answer this through a new database on protest events before and after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. In two subprojects, complementary questions are answered. In the first subproject, these include: How did protest movements act in rebel-held territory? Whom did they address? How successful were they? How did they adapt following regime change? Based on existing research, a focus on decentralized, local protests addressing rebels is expected. Successful movements are likely to later support emerging rebel governance. The second subproject aims to answer: How did protest movements act in state-held territory? Whom did they address? How successful were they? How did they adapt after regime change? Existing research highlights the international community and centralized, public forms of protest. Post-regime change, they have the potential for nationwide protests, but are also more exposed to repression. Comparing trajectories of rebel-held and state-held territory allows the project to differentiate opportunity structures. The project complements existing approaches within rebel governance research by focussing on long-term developments of protest strategies after transition periods and addresses questions about social dynamics of political transformations after the end of conflicts. Existing research on rebel governance can explain protest behavior during civil war, and transformations of governances practices once rebels become successful, but there are few insights into how protest movements act after conflict is resolved. This project aims to research their strategies after rebel success. It thus contributes to recent developments within rebel governance research, which aim to conceptualize it as a historically and socially rooted phenomenon.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants