EUkraine. Mapping European Scenarios for Ukraine

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Oleksiy Kandyuk
• Subject Area: Political Science
• Term: since 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 521440428

Since gaining its independence in 1991, Ukraine has been through multiple protracted and bumpy political, economic, and social transitions, which have, despite many obstacles, brought the country ever closer to the European Union (EU). Far from signaling an end to this path of ‘Europeanization’, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a renewed desire and also tangible commitments from the side of the Ukrainian leadership and the EU to reinforce efforts to deepen Ukraine’s association with the EU by offering a “European perspective” and to start to prepare the ground to make Ukraine an official membership candidate.This rather unexpected occurrence, which has seen Ukraine move from being associates and partners to European integration, to prospective membership, provides the overall rationale for the proposed project. Though it will not happen very soon, the fact that Ukraine is edging closer to the EU, means that the conceptual and policy ‘goalposts’ regarding EU-Ukraine relations are evolving. This emerging situation has revealed an acute need for informed research, fresh knowledge, and expert capacity on European integration to support Ukraine’s Europeanization. The proposed project will address the sizeable gaps in both research and expert capacity that have emerged since Ukraine jumped on to the “EU enlargement radar” in March 2022.The project aims to create new research terrain on contemporary EU-Ukraine relations, embedded within a framework of enlargement studies and Europeanization and based on intensive collaboration between German and Ukrainian experts.The project aims to develop a novel methodology, using elements of the EU’s own membership criteria to analyze and assess how Ukraine gets through with reforms and transformations on the way to full-fledged EU membership. For that reason a special bi-national working group of experts will elaborate and present Evaluation Index based on appropriate criteria. The project will pay particular attention to the role of Germany in large Eastern European enlargement in relation to challenges of building democratic institutions, improving rule of law, independent judiciaries etc. to avoid mistakes and accelerate Europeanization.The project aims to develop salient case studies or ‘poles’ of research, that will allow the research to ‘delve deep’ into Ukraine’s ‘problem areas’ in relation to meeting EU accession criteria. These case studies will revolve around democracy, the rule of law and governance.The project aims to elaborate four European Scenarios for Ukraine as its ‘flagship’ activity. The scenarios will not attempt to predict the future but offer different visions of possible and plausible futures for Ukraine and the EU. The project will aim to create stakeholder network, that bring together academics, experts, young leaders and civil society from both states, with the objective of fostering awareness raising and sharing of perspectives amongst Ukrainians and Germans.

• DFG Programme: WBP Position