Epidemic Dynamics of Diabetes: Projecting Prevalence, Incidence, Health Inequalities and Economic Burden

• Applicant: Dr. Thaddäus Tönnies
• Subject Area: Epidemiology and Medical Biometry/Statistics ; Public Health, Healthcare Research, Social and Occupational Medicine
• Term: since 2022
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 516146656

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) causes a substantial disease burden and disproportionately affects people of low socioeconomic position (SEP) leading to persistent health inequalities. Besides its impact on health, T2DM imposes a major economic burden on populations for instance due to lower participation in labour force. In addition, the prevalence of T2DM will increase substantially in future decades. However, it is unclear how T2DM-related health inequalities with regard to prevalence and economic burden will change in future. For Europe in general and Germany in particular, future T2DM-related productivity losses are an important concern, because the proportion of the population in working age will substantially decrease in upcoming decades. Hence, the project ‘Epidemic Dynamics of Diabetes: Projecting Prevalence, Incidence, Health Inequalities and Economic Burden’ (EDD-Project) aims to project future dynamics of the T2DM epidemic with respect to prevalence, health inequalities and productivity losses in Germany, while simultaneously accounting for trends in incidence, mortality and the population age structure. To achieve this aim, we will apply illness-death models, which account for the dynamic interplay between prevalence, incidence and mortality of people with and without T2DM. As a prerequisite to model application, we will make use of large, representative and up to date databases to estimate necessary input data and incorporate the results into the model. Given the persistent health inequalities related to T2DM and the substantial impact of T2DM on population health and productivity, this project will provide highly relevant results in economic and societal terms.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants