Updating of false prior beliefs in volatile environments

• Applicant: Dr. Paola Mengotti
• Subject Area: Biological Psychology and Cognitive Neuroscience ; General, Cognitive and Mathematical Psychology ; Human Cognitive and Systems Neuroscience
• Term: since 2021
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 469865161

Contemporary views propose that the human brain maintains probabilistic models of the world that are used to predicts sensations and events. Past experiences shape these internal models which are updated when unexpected events occur. This ability of the brain to continuously update expectations or beliefs is fundamental for adapting to changing or volatile environments. Computational modelling of behavior has shown that estimates of the environmental volatility crucially affect this updating process, making individuals more or less sensitive to update their internal model. However, not all pieces of information we receive are reliable in signalling a real change in the environment. Indeed, information can be unreliable or even misleading, leading to the formation of false prior beliefs. Past experience can be misleading as well, if used to interpret a new set of events with different features. The present project is dedicated to investigating adaptation to volatile environments when our prior beliefs concerning the volatility of the environment are false.In three work packages, I will use evidence coming from behavioral and fMRI data combined with computational modelling to investigate the effect of false prior beliefs on adaptation to volatile environments. Work package 1 will focus on false prior beliefs induced by external information; work package 2 on false prior beliefs induced by past experience that cannot be relied on anymore; work package 3 on the individual differences in sensitivity to these types of experimentally induced false beliefs. False prior beliefs concerning the volatility of the environment will be experimentally induced in an attention task, and hierarchical Bayesian modelling will be applied to describe the changes in belief updating induced by the false prior beliefs. Parameters from the model will be integrated in the fMRI analysis to investigate the neural correlates of these processes.Whereas predictive coding processes in the brain have already been repeatedly described for different cognitive processes, the impact of false prior beliefs on adaptation to volatile environments still misses thorough investigation. Understanding the mechanisms behind this process is of extreme importance, as our modern world is rich in unreliable sources of information, which can lead to the formation of false beliefs, and adapting to the constant changes in the environment is a basic requirement for all organisms.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants