Project Details
Projekt
Analysis and modeling of housing
Applicants
Dr. Hanna Brenzel; Professor Dr. Ralf Münnich
Subject Area
Empirical Social Research
Term
since 2021
Project identifier
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 316511172
The aim of the project is the implementation of the housing market in the existing small scale microsimulation model. This requires a thorough analysis of demand and supply to model relevant dynamics as well as the analysis of rental prices at a fine resolution level. In a first step, housing demand will be derived from regional population development. In particular, the effects of long-term demographic processes on the extent and type of housing demand will be analysed. Using a number of population scenarios, different trends can be mapped and the change in total demand can be derived accordingly. In addition, the supply of housing will be modeled. The main challenges in this will be to build up a data basis based on a wide variety of data sources to derive a holistic picture of Germany on a regional level and to generate theory-based assumption on possible developments. On the basis of a comparison with current and planned construction activity, statements can also be made about the tension of the housing market in the medium term. In order to draw conclusions on the development of prices on regional real estate markets, the demand and supply are finally linked to rental prices at a small-scale level. These are derived using modern methods of small area estimation. Here too, a major task will be to generate a comprehensive data basis using both data from official statistics and alternative data sources. The questions about affordable housing can only be analyzed and answered through the small-scale microsimulation of supply and demand of housing and the predictive modeling of rental prices. In combination with the existing income module, rent load can be calculated and possible displacement effects can be modeled. In addition, the effects of social and housing policies, such as social housing, child benefit, housing benefit or rent control, can be simulated.
DFG Programme
Research Units
