dynamicAL ConstrAints on regional projections of future PrecipitatiON Extremes (AL CAPONE)

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Stephan Pfahl
• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science
• Term: since 2021
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 465143647

Projections of future extreme precipitation intensities are subject to substantial uncertainties, in particular due to uncertainties in changes in the underlying dynamical processes. The goal of this project is to reduce these uncertainties with the help of dynamical constraints. We hypothesize that dynamic contributions to future changes in extreme precipitation are related to the present-day dynamical processes causing precipitation extremes. To test this hypothesis, we will combine large initial condition ensembles of global climate models with reanalysis data and observations of extreme precipitation intensities. The properties of weather systems driving extreme precipitation dynamics as well as the seasonality and spatial patterns of extreme precipitation associated with large-scale dynamical features will be quantified in observations and model simulations of present-day and future climate. Storylines of future regional changes in extreme precipitation will be developed following different dynamical changes. Finally, constrained estimates of future extreme precipitation changes will be produced considering the models' fidelity in representing the driving weather systems, seasonality and relation to the large-scale spatial patterns. The expected reduction in uncertainties obtained from these constraints will have immediate impacts for many applications that rely on model projections of extreme precipitation changes, e.g., for adaptation and planning purposes.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants
• International Connection: Switzerland
• Partner Organisation: Schweizerischer Nationalfonds (SNF)
• Cooperation Partner: Dr. Erich Markus Fischer