The Etesian wind system and energy potential over the Aegean Sea; Past, present and future
Final Report Abstract
The Etesians are one of the most prominent wind systems in the world. They are persistent, northerly, regional-scale winds that blow every summer over the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. The Etesian wind pattern is known since antiquity. The first reference dates back to the eighth century B.C., indicating the stability of the climate of the region for at least two and half millennia. Our contribution goes beyond the state of the art as it (i) evaluates the most recent GCMs and RCMs in reproducing the Etesian winds over complex terrain in climatological perspective; (ii) paves the way for future studies on the use of RCMs in the evaluation of site-specific wind conditions over the Aegean; (iii) assesses the wind potential over the Aegean Sea and provides information critical to policy makers, wind energy developers/companies; (iv) explores in depth the physical mechanisms responsible for the Etesians and the subsidence over the EMED over the whole 20th century; (v) studies changes in the large‐scale circulation processes associated to the Etesians and identifies the mechanism behind these changes for the 21st century; and finally it (vi) raises awareness associated with prevention and risk reduction of wildfires, air pollution, and safe design, construction and operation of wind energy turbines. Our major results are summarized as follows: The EURO-CORDEX RCMs can be considered as a valuable tool for investigating wind resources at regional scale. Therefore, our study encourages a broader use of climate models for the assessment of future wind energy potential over the Aegean. - Most CMIP5 models realistically reproduce the monsoon-desert mechanism rendering them a useful tool for studying the ISM-ENSO relationship and its remote response on the Eastern Mediterranean atmospheric circulation. - The remote response of ENSO variability to the dominant features of the Eastern Mediterranean summer atmospheric circulation is detected through the modulation of the strength of the ISM. - A progressively increase of Etesians frequency and intensity, induced by large‐scale circulation processes is projected for the twenty‐first century and could potentially lead to more extensive wildfires in the future. - The Etesians response to climate change is associated to a reinforced westerly flow (stronger zonal flow), a decreased meridional wave amplitude (reduced waviness), and an intensified‐poleward shifted Subtropical Jet stream. - The Etesians are linked to increased tropopause folds over the Eastern Mediterranean and stratospheric intrusions of rich in ozone air masses into the troposphere, with the strong subsidence further aiding the transport to lower tropospheric levels.
Publications
- (2017): Do RCMs Accurately Simulate the Etesians Climatology? In: Karacostas T., Bais A., Nastos P. (eds) Perspectives on Atmospheric Sciences. Springer Atmospheric Sciences. Springer, Cham
Dafka S., A. Toreti, J. Luterbacher, P. Zanis P., E. Tyrlis, and E. Xoplaki
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-35095-0_84) - (2017): On the ability of RCMs to capture the circulation pattern of Etesians, Climate Dynamics, 51, 1687– 1706
Dafka, S., A. Toreti, J. Luterbacher, P. Zanis, E. Tyrlis, and E. Xoplaki
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3977-2) - (2018): Simulating Extreme Etesians over the Aegean and Implications for Wind Energy Production in Southeastern Europe, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 57, 1123-1134
Dafka, S., A. Toreti, J. Luterbacher, P. Zanis, E. Tyrlis, and E. Xoplaki
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0172.1) - (2019): Twenty-first-century changes in the Eastern Mediterranean Etesians and associated mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 12741-12754
Dafka, S., A. Toreti, P. Zanis, E. Xoplaki, and J. Luterbacher
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031203) - 2021: On the link between the Etesian winds, tropopause folds and tropospheric ozone over the Eastern Mediterranean during summer. Atmospheric Research, 248, 105161
Dafka, S., D., Akritis, P. Zanis, A. Pozzer, E. Xoplaki, J. Luterbacher, and C. Zerefos, C.
(See online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105161)
