Resource-efficient probabilistic forecasts of rainfall in tropical Africa (C02)

• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science ; Mathematics
• Term: from 2015 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 257899354

Forecasting precipitation in the tropics remains a substantial challenge, in particular in tropical Africa, where potential socio-economic benefits are large. Here we will provide a first-ever systematic assessment of a wide range of forecast approaches spanning several orders of magnitude in terms of their costs. The types of fore-casts considered include climatological benchmarks, ensemble predictions generated from deterministic forecasts, statistical forecasts of varying complexity and output from standard weather models using different resolutions and treatments of thunderstorms.

• DFG Programme: CRC/Transregios
• Subproject of: TRR 165: Waves to Weather
• Applicant Institution: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
• Project Heads: Professor Dr. Andreas Fink; Professor Dr. Tilmann Gneiting; Professor Dr. Peter Knippertz