Quantifying sources of uncertainty on convective scales using a Grand Ensemble (B03)

• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science ; Image and Language Processing, Computer Graphics and Visualisation, Human Computer Interaction, Ubiquitous and Wearable Computing
• Term: from 2015 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 257899354

The goal is to identify sources of uncertainty for convective-scale predictability and quantify their relative contributions to uncertainty in forecasts of summertime convection over Central Europe. We intend to build a comprehensive and quantitative view of the origin and propagation of different sources of uncertainty, with additional parameterizations to represent model errors and new tools to explore and quantify their impacts. We will create a regional Grand Ensemble (RGE), i.e. an ensemble of ensembles extending the ICON-D2-EPS convective-scale data assimilation and forecasting system to include new stochastic boundary layer and cloud microphysics parameterizations.

• DFG Programme: CRC/Transregios
• Subproject of: TRR 165: Waves to Weather
• Applicant Institution: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
• Project Heads: Dr. Christian Barthlott; Professor Dr. George Craig, since 7/2023; Professorin Dr. Corinna Hoose, until 6/2019; Dr. Christian Keil; Professor Dr. Rüdiger Westermann, since 7/2023