The variability and relevance of the intrinsic limit of predictability (A01)

• Subject Area: Atmospheric Science
• Term: from 2015 to 2024
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 257899354

Scale interactions fundamentally limit atmospheric predictability even if nearly perfect observation and computation methods for weather prediction were available. This project investigates the day-to-day variability of this intrinsic limit and its distance to our current forecasting capabilities by creating a large data set of numerical simulations and by applying novel quantitative diagnostics and theoretical findings. The project thereby contributes to the important question of how much room for improvement is left in numerical weather forecasting.

• DFG Programme: CRC/Transregios
• Subproject of: TRR 165: Waves to Weather
• Applicant Institution: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
• Project Heads: Professor Dr. George Craig; Privatdozent Dr. Michael Riemer; Professor Dr. Holger Tost, until 6/2023; Professor Dr. Volkmar Wirth, until 6/2019