Europes freshwater under climate change: the effect of hydrological and thermal regime alterations, connectivity and species traits on vulnerability of freshwater environments

• Applicant: Professorin Dr.-Ing. Danijela Markovic-Bredthauer
• Subject Area: Hydrogeology, Hydrology, Limnology, Urban Water Management, Water Chemistry, Integrated Water Resources Management
• Term: from 2015 to 2020
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 277557844

The proposed project will enhance our scientific understanding of climate change impacts across a broad range of freshwater taxa (plants, fishes, molluscs, amphibians, crayfish, and turtles) at the European spatial scale. The central questions are (i) how species will respond to climate change in view of the hydrological and thermal regime alterations, anthropogenic pressures on water resources, dispersal barriers such as dams and obstacles and species traits, (ii) what are the fitness consequences of realistic species range shifts and (iii) how vulnerable are the European freshwater environments to climate change? The proposed study will explicitly quantify the role of dispersal barriers and species traits on their recolonisation ability, and characterise those aspects of species physiology that determine individualistic responses to climate change. Within a comprehensive analysis framework addressing the multiple peculiarities of freshwater environments including dendritic structure of river networks, habitat fragmentation and downstream effects propagation, the following three components of the vulnerability will be assessed: (1) extrinsic exposure to climate change, i.e., the extent to which thermal and hydrological regimes in each catchment will change by 2100 for a range of scenarios; (2) intrinsic sensitivity to altered environmental conditions, i.e., the lack of potential for freshwater species to persist in a catchment, and; (3) resilience, i.e., ability to cope with climate change. Modelling the ecological effects of climate change requires use of a multitude of modelling techniques as well as substantial methodological advances, in particular in species distribution modelling. The proposed project has importance to both, maintaining freshwater biodiversity and broadening our understanding of the geography and the biology of climate change.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants