Modelling the distribution of a folivorous lemur under the impact of climate change

• Applicant: Professor Dr. Jörg U. Ganzhorn
• Subject Area: Ecology and Biodiversity of Animals and Ecosystems, Organismic Interactions
• Term: from 2014 to 2023
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 255752335

The project aims to develop principles for simple distribution models for lemurs and other vertebrates of the spiny forest ecosystem in Madagascar. Modern species distribution models are based on high-tech input provided by remote sensing techniques, combined with sophisticated computing algorithms and climate change scenarios. While these models can advance our understanding of the constraints acting upon species, their interaction with other species and the environment, and make predictions of future changes based on specific scenarios, these models are applied rarely in actual biodiversity management. Reasons for this could be that actors on the ground do not have the skills, the time and guidance needed to acquire the skills, or the technical means to process these models. The proposed study will use simple and freely available images from Google Earth to develop decision rules for conservation managers for assessing the state of the globally unique spiny forest ecosystems in Madagascar. The spiny forests differ markedly from more humid forests and have very different structures (such as trees with very small crowns) that are not captured by the standard criteria for forest classification. We will use an iterative approach of field and desk studies to link these constraining components to features of forests recognizable on Google Earth images. For this, we will take advantage of the previous work on a folivorous lemur species (Lepilemur petteri). This species is feeding mostly on leaves and requires specific tree characteristics that should be suitable either for direct identification on Google Earth images or by identifying proxies on larger scales. By linking structural characteristics of the spiny forest ecosystem to the needs of lemurs (specifically Lepilemur petteri) on the one hand, and to features that can be measured in freely available remote sensing data, we aim to provide a low-cost tool for effective conservation planning in spiny forest ecosystems.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants