Profiling plants to predict success and longevity of climate change-induced invasions

• Applicant: Dr. Katrin Meyer
• Subject Area: Ecology and Biodiversity of Plants and Ecosystems
• Term: from 2011 to 2017
• Project identifier: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) - Project number 197325003

Current climate warming contributes to massive range shifts of plants and animals from lower to higher latitude. If plants shift their range faster than their above- and belowground enemies, the plants may eventually escape and become invasive in the new range. This natural process of invasive range expansion may amplify the substantial consequences for native biodiversity and socio-economic problems caused by traditional intercontinental invasions. Despite the importance of plant traits for invasion success, general trait profiles that promote invasive range shifts are not yet identified. The aim of the project is to predict the incidence of climate change-induced invasions by profiling plants with respect to their capacity to disperse, compete, and defend against above- and belowground enemies. A simulation model will be developed to assess the invasive performance of plants with different trait profiles. The model will link multiple spatial scales and make not only short-term but also long-term predictions by including evolution of traits. Short-term predictions will be evaluated by parallel greenhouse experiments with real plants corresponding to the simulated trait profiles. These plant species will be grown together with a community of native northern plant species and their establishment success will be compared to the model results to refine model predictions of potential future invaders.

• DFG Programme: Research Grants